Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	secret_servic	197		✓	0.984	0.000199	0.0153
1	secret_servic	197		✗	0	0	0
2	__NUM___year	85		✓	0.325	0	0.112
2	__NUM___year	85		✗	0.559	0	0.00458
3	natur_disast	56		✓	0.274	0.00299	0.0344
3	natur_disast	56		✗	0.655	0	0.0334
4	run_mate	48		✓	0.279	0	0.00478
4	run_mate	48		✗	0.711	0	0.00517
5	paul_ryan	2		✓	0.0149	0	0.000995
5	paul_ryan	2		✗	0.977	0	0.00697
6	rural_commun	49		✓	0.214	0	0.000796
6	rural_commun	49		✗	0.785	0	0.000199
7	rural_america	16		✓	0.0746	0.000597	0.00498
7	rural_america	16		✗	0.92	0	0.000199
8	__MONEY___million	48		✓	0.299	0.000199	0.0384
8	__MONEY___million	48		✗	0.66	0	0.00239
9	feder_govern	23		✓	0.121	0	0.00398
9	feder_govern	23		✗	0.86	0	0.0141
10	__MONEY___million	8		✓	0.0794	0.000199	0.0263
10	__MONEY___million	8		✗	0.887	0	0.00716
11	tough_time	43		✓	0.232	0	0.0683
11	tough_time	43		✗	0.684	0	0.0163
12	long_term	7		✓	0.0237	0.000199	0.143
12	long_term	7		✗	0.75	0	0.083
13	tough_time	82		✓	0.494	0	0.00617
13	tough_time	82		✗	0.488	0	0.0119
14	__NUM___year_ago	56		✓	0.246	0	0.000995
14	__NUM___year_ago	56		✗	0.753	0	0.000199
15	bu_tour	9		✓	0.047	0	0
15	bu_tour	9		✗	0.953	0	0
16	famili_farm	8		✓	0.0348	0	0.000796
16	famili_farm	8		✗	0.964	0	0
17	small_busi	2		✓	0.0143	0.00577	0.038
17	small_busi	2		✗	0.941	0	0.000796
18	front_porch	96		✓	0.427	0	0.000199
18	front_porch	96		✗	0.572	0	0
19	__NUM___dai	29		✓	0.128	0	0.00179
19	__NUM___dai	29		✗	0.87	0	0
20	polit_parti	48		✓	0.215	0	0
20	polit_parti	48		✗	0.785	0	0
21	recent_memori	7		✓	0.034	0	0
21	recent_memori	7		✗	0.966	0	0
22	vote_booth	33		✓	0.145	0	0
22	vote_booth	33		✗	0.855	0	0
23	children_live	18		✓	0.0862	0	0
23	children_live	18		✗	0.914	0	0
24	year_ago	41		✓	0.148	0.000597	0.111
24	year_ago	41		✗	0.741	0	0
25	middl_class	43		✓	0.218	0.000398	0.0434
25	middl_class	43		✗	0.682	0.000199	0.0563
26	work_hard	21		✓	0.16	0	0.00458
26	work_hard	21		✗	0.81	0	0.0253
27	health_care	42		✓	0.197	0.000398	0.0199
27	health_care	42		✗	0.773	0	0.00975
28	american_dream	50		✓	0.255	0	0
28	american_dream	50		✗	0.745	0	0
29	work_harder	37		✓	0.158	0	0.000995
29	work_harder	37		✗	0.841	0	0
30	health_care	12		✓	0.0555	0	0
30	health_care	12		✗	0.944	0	0.000398
31	colleg_educ	3		✓	0.0207	0	0.000597
31	colleg_educ	3		✗	0.979	0	0
32	financi_crisi	12		✓	0.0199	0	0.678
32	financi_crisi	12		✗	0.301	0	0.000995
33	great_depress	3		✓	0.0101	0	0.0127
33	great_depress	3		✗	0.307	0	0.67
34	american_dream	63		✓	0.764	0	0.000597
34	american_dream	63		✗	0.233	0	0.00239
35	work_peopl	9		✓	0.0402	0	0.00219
35	work_peopl	9		✗	0.956	0	0.00199
36	tough_time	21		✓	0.0973	0	0.000398
36	tough_time	21		✗	0.902	0	0.000398
37	commun_colleg	21		✓	0.0971	0	0.000597
37	commun_colleg	21		✗	0.902	0	0
38	small_busi	11		✓	0.0265	0.415	0.0643
38	small_busi	11		✗	0.494	0.000398	0.000597
39	door_open	3		✓	0.0181	0.00318	0.00119
39	door_open	3		✗	0.506	0.414	0.0575
40	manufactur_job	23		✓	0.00438	0	0.916
40	manufactur_job	23		✗	0.0175	0.000796	0.0611
41	great_depress	6		✓	0.0237	0	0.0223
41	great_depress	6		✗	0.0201	0	0.934
42	american_peopl	33		✓	0.798	0	0.0183
42	american_peopl	33		✗	0.0384	0	0.146
43	hard_work	35		✓	0.269	0	0.00617
43	hard_work	35		✗	0.709	0	0.0151
44	unit_state	52		✓	0.231	0	0.00657
44	unit_state	52		✗	0.761	0	0.00219
45	__NUM___year_ago	10		✓	0.0476	0	0.00199
45	__NUM___year_ago	10		✗	0.946	0	0.00458
46	make_thing	126		✓	0.493	0	0.00259
46	make_thing	126		✗	0.505	0	0
47	unit_state	19		✓	0.0858	0	0.00597
47	unit_state	19		✗	0.907	0	0.00139
48	run_mate	71		✓	0.29	0.000199	0.00995
48	run_mate	71		✗	0.699	0	0.000597
49	good_man	22		✓	0.111	0	0
49	good_man	22		✗	0.888	0	0.000199
50	famili_man	4		✓	0.0263	0	0
50	famili_man	4		✗	0.974	0	0
51	big_corpor	43		✓	0.000199	0	1
51	big_corpor	43		✗	0.000199	0	0
52	tax_break	4		✓	0	0	0.0161
52	tax_break	4		✗	0	0	0.984
53	econom_plan	48		✓	0	0	0.162
53	econom_plan	48		✗	0	0	0.838
54	__MONEY___trillion	4		✓	0	0	0.0165
54	__MONEY___trillion	4		✗	0	0	0.983
55	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0	0.00816
55	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.992
56	rais_tax	41		✓	0	0.000597	0.131
56	rais_tax	41		✗	0	0	0.869
57	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.0123
57	middl_class	2		✗	0	0.000597	0.987
58	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00299
58	class_famili	0		✗	0	0.000597	0.996
59	creat_job	34		✓	0.00239	0	0.111
59	creat_job	34		✗	0	0.000199	0.887
60	tax_cut	26		✓	0	0.000398	0.089
60	tax_cut	26		✗	0	0	0.911
61	__MONEY___million	8		✓	0.00159	0	0.0291
61	__MONEY___million	8		✗	0	0.000398	0.969
62	sound_familiar	11		✓	0	0	0.0378
62	sound_familiar	11		✗	0	0	0.962
63	creat_job	42		✓	0.0119	0.17	0.11
63	creat_job	42		✗	0	0	0.708
64	tax_cut	22		✓	0	0.455	0.0281
64	tax_cut	22		✗	0	0.169	0.348
65	tax_relief	7		✓	0	0.218	0.00458
65	tax_relief	7		✗	0	0.624	0.153
66	work_famili	2		✓	0	0.0127	0.00159
66	work_famili	2		✗	0	0.842	0.144
67	tax_relief	3		✓	0	0.000995	0.00299
67	tax_relief	3		✗	0	0.852	0.144
68	year_ago	39		✓	0.0326	0.00358	0.19
68	year_ago	39		✗	0.000398	0.653	0.12
69	middl_class	6		✓	0.00378	0.0155	0.00955
69	middl_class	6		✗	0.0263	0.657	0.288
70	work_famili	14		✓	0.00199	0.135	0.0135
70	work_famili	14		✗	0.00299	0.671	0.176
71	tax_rate	11		✓	0	0.0231	0.00756
71	tax_rate	11		✗	0	0.805	0.165
72	incom_tax	76		✓	0	0.0279	0.0472
72	incom_tax	76		✗	0	0.806	0.119
73	small_busi	14		✓	0.00119	0.00119	0.0338
73	small_busi	14		✗	0	0.803	0.16
74	top___NUM___percent	68		✓	0	0	0.842
74	top___NUM___percent	68		✗	0	0.00458	0.153
75	tax_cut	7		✓	0	0	0.0297
75	tax_cut	7		✗	0	0.00338	0.967
76	economi_grow	38		✓	0.00776	0	0.125
76	economi_grow	38		✗	0	0.000199	0.867
77	trillion_dollar	15		✓	0	0	0.0595
77	trillion_dollar	15		✗	0	0	0.94
78	bill_clinton	60		✓	0.00279	0	0.19
78	bill_clinton	60		✗	0	0	0.807
79	__NUM___million	14		✓	0.127	0.000199	0.045
79	__NUM___million	14		✗	0.00279	0	0.825
80	factori_worker	32		✓	0.367	0	0.0613
80	factori_worker	32		✗	0.108	0	0.464
81	construct_worker	3		✓	0.0231	0	0.0111
81	construct_worker	3		✗	0.46	0	0.505
82	__NUM___year	58		✓	0.408	0	0.0585
82	__NUM___year	58		✗	0.358	0	0.176
83	long_time	17		✓	0.185	0	0.0101
83	long_time	17		✗	0.705	0	0.1
84	school_year	13		✓	0.0595	0	0.0336
84	school_year	13		✗	0.809	0	0.0975
85	unit_state	82		✓	0.238	0	0.275
85	unit_state	82		✗	0.417	0	0.0691
86	sharp_contrast	11		✓	0.0279	0.00179	0.138
86	sharp_contrast	11		✗	0.505	0	0.328
87	auto_industri	9		✓	0	0	0.536
87	auto_industri	9		✗	0.0147	0	0.449
88	million_job	11		✓	0	0.000398	0.0557
88	million_job	11		✗	0.000398	0	0.943
89	great_american	22		✓	0.00199	0	0.0728
89	great_american	22		✗	0	0	0.925
90	american_industri	0		✓	0	0	0.00577
90	american_industri	0		✗	0	0	0.994
91	american_worker	4		✓	0	0	0.0165
91	american_worker	4		✗	0	0	0.983
92	american_manufactur	4		✓	0	0	0.0173
92	american_manufactur	4		✗	0	0	0.983
93	auto_industri	7		✓	0	0	0.0237
93	auto_industri	7		✗	0	0	0.976
94	manufactur_job	16		✓	0.000199	0	0.0551
94	manufactur_job	16		✗	0	0	0.945
95	privat_sector	28		✓	0.000199	0	0.0977
95	privat_sector	28		✗	0	0	0.902
96	tax_break	39		✓	0	0	0.126
96	tax_break	39		✗	0	0	0.874
97	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0199
97	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.98
98	tax_break	3		✓	0	0	0.0137
98	tax_break	3		✗	0	0	0.986
99	unit_state	9		✓	0.00418	0	0.0344
99	unit_state	9		✗	0	0	0.961
100	american_worker	5		✓	0	0	0.0235
100	american_worker	5		✗	0.00119	0	0.975
101	wind_energi	34		✓	0	0	0.089
101	wind_energi	34		✗	0	0	0.911
102	tax_credit	17		✓	0	0	0.000398
102	tax_credit	17		✗	0	0	1
103	wind_energi	2		✓	0	0	0.000597
103	wind_energi	2		✗	0	0	0.999
104	__NUM___job	33		✓	0	0	0.000995
104	__NUM___job	33		✗	0	0	0.999
105	wind_energi	5		✓	0	0	0.000199
105	wind_energi	5		✗	0	0	1
106	tax_credit	1		✓	0	0	0
106	tax_credit	1		✗	0	0	1
107	thousand_job	14		✓	0	0	0.000995
107	thousand_job	14		✗	0	0	0.999
108	taxpay_subsidi	17		✓	0	0	0.000597
108	taxpay_subsidi	17		✗	0	0	0.999
109	oil_industri	3		✓	0	0	0.000199
109	oil_industri	3		✗	0	0	1
110	clean_energi	15		✓	0.0135	0	0.0109
110	clean_energi	15		✗	0	0	0.976
111	bin_laden	47		✓	0.796	0	0.179
111	bin_laden	47		✗	0.0109	0	0.0141
112	put_peopl	188		✓	0.699	0	0.0259
112	put_peopl	188		✗	0.271	0	0.00398
113	local_commun	24		✓	0.126	0.000199	0.00139
113	local_commun	24		✗	0.869	0	0.00279
114	polic_offic	9		✓	0.0442	0	0.00239
114	polic_offic	9		✗	0.951	0.000199	0.00219
115	__NUM___million	70		✓	0.284	0	0.00935
115	__NUM___million	70		✗	0.706	0	0.000995
116	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.0468	0	0
116	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.953	0	0
117	higher_educ	32		✓	0.143	0	0
117	higher_educ	32		✗	0.857	0	0
118	__NUM___centuri	11		✓	0.0521	0	0
118	__NUM___centuri	11		✗	0.948	0	0
119	low_rate	20		✓	0.0971	0	0
119	low_rate	20		✗	0.903	0	0
120	repeal_obamacar	48		✓	0.00816	0	0.000398
120	repeal_obamacar	48		✗	0.991	0	0
121	middl_class	13		✓	0.58	0.00139	0.127
121	middl_class	13		✗	0.291	0	0.000199
122	health_insur	34		✓	0.213	0	0.00219
122	health_insur	34		✗	0.774	0	0.0109
123	__NUM___million	3		✓	0.00975	0	0
123	__NUM___million	3		✗	0.985	0	0.00478
124	young_peopl	1		✓	0.00378	0	0
124	young_peopl	1		✗	0.995	0	0.00139
125	prescript_drug	17		✓	0.00398	0	0
125	prescript_drug	17		✗	0.996	0	0
126	insur_compani	3		✓	0.000398	0	0.000597
126	insur_compani	3		✗	0.999	0	0
127	suprem_court	27		✓	0.0482	0	0
127	suprem_court	27		✗	0.952	0	0
128	bring_back	18		✓	0.253	0	0.0836
128	bring_back	18		✗	0.663	0	0
129	health_care	10		✓	0.0553	0	0.00279
129	health_care	10		✗	0.892	0	0.05
130	same_kind	17		✓	0.12	0	0.00358
130	same_kind	17		✗	0.853	0	0.0235
131	world_war_ii	11		✓	0.604	0	0
131	world_war_ii	11		✗	0.396	0	0
132	gi_bill	11		✓	0.0569	0	0
132	gi_bill	11		✗	0.943	0	0
133	middl_class	12		✓	0.0553	0	0
133	middl_class	12		✗	0.945	0	0
134	class_life	0		✓	0.00537	0	0
134	class_life	0		✗	0.995	0	0
135	work_hard	21		✓	0.0963	0	0.00139
135	work_hard	21		✗	0.902	0	0
136	basic_idea	25		✓	0.115	0	0.00159
136	basic_idea	25		✗	0.883	0	0.000199
137	work_hard	4		✓	0.0239	0	0.000398
137	work_hard	4		✗	0.975	0	0.000995
138	__NUM___month	56		✓	0.239	0	0.00378
138	__NUM___month	56		✗	0.757	0	0.000199
139	neg_ad	14		✓	0.071	0	0.000398
139	neg_ad	14		✗	0.928	0	0.000199
140	rich_peopl	15		✓	0.0185	0.000199	0.713
140	rich_peopl	15		✗	0.267	0	0.000796
141	__MONEY___million	2		✓	0.00617	0	0.0201
141	__MONEY___million	2		✗	0.269	0	0.704
142	same_thing	10		✓	0.0179	0	0.0673
142	same_thing	10		✗	0.22	0	0.695
143	econom_theori	8		✓	0.0189	0	0.0414
143	econom_theori	8		✗	0.211	0	0.729
144	creat_job	105		✓	0.00796	0	0.486
144	creat_job	105		✗	0.00756	0	0.498
145	middl_class	4		✓	0.00159	0	0.0207
145	middl_class	4		✗	0.0107	0	0.967
146	class_famili	26		✓	0.00896	0.00139	0.0925
146	class_famili	26		✗	0.00378	0	0.893
147	middl_class	8		✓	0.044	0.000597	0.0271
147	middl_class	8		✗	0.0125	0.00119	0.915
148	american_peopl	90		✓	0.889	0	0.0203
148	american_peopl	90		✗	0.0352	0	0.0557
149	student_loan	39		✓	0.207	0	0.00657
149	student_loan	39		✗	0.773	0	0.0143
150	good_life	24		✓	0.11	0	0.0193
150	good_life	24		✗	0.858	0	0.0127
151	fair_share	49		✓	0.24	0	0.00458
151	fair_share	49		✗	0.752	0	0.00338
152	make_decis	53		✓	0.233	0	0.000597
152	make_decis	53		✗	0.766	0	0.000398
153	good_job	29		✓	0.125	0	0.00836
153	good_job	29		✗	0.866	0	0.000199
154	bring_home	55		✓	0.251	0	0
154	bring_home	55		✗	0.749	0	0
155	work_hard	21		✓	0.0973	0	0.000597
155	work_hard	21		✗	0.902	0	0
156	unit_state	26		✓	0.113	0	0.00478
156	unit_state	26		✗	0.882	0	0.000199
157	phone_call	43		✓	0.195	0	0
157	phone_call	43		✗	0.805	0	0
158	unit_state	35		✓	0.159	0	0.000796
158	unit_state	35		✗	0.84	0	0
159	god_bless	9		✓	0.0446	0	0
159	god_bless	9		✗	0.955	0	0
160	unit_state	7		✓	0.037	0	0.00856
160	unit_state	7		✗	0.954	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation